KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.23
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.99
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.8%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
#99Ranked 99 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Spinx
MOUZ vs 9z
RISK · OVER 18.5
BEST OVER · UD 17.5PP18.5UD17.5SL17.5
≈ L5 19.0 · L20 19.6Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 18.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.81
Previous meeting · vs 9z
0/1 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 13-4 · Nuke 13-7 · W
13
Under 18.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
19.6
11/20 hit at 18.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Spinx is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~31 kills at 60.6% HS): 0.769 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59.5%) or blowout (32.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.99
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.8%
Rating
4.2/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
18.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.4%
+3.2 →
Learned
57.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
56.8%146 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 60% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.99) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.1 headshots vs line 18.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 61%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.1 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.99 vs line 18.5 → +0.49 (2.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.12
HS/Map
9.78
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.4
KAST
77.2%
HS%
60.6%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.2 · KPR 0.835 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)8.8 · KPR 0.758 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.769
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.66
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills31.33
× realistic HS% (60.6%)18.99
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18.5. Model: 55.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.1%
~16 HS · 33r25.8%
Normal37.1%
~19 HS · 41r56.4%
Close maps16.4%
~20 HS · 43r64.1%
Overtime14.4%
~23 HS · 49r82.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
+10% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18.5 (Over) · avg 19.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
18.5
Nearby lines
| 16.5 Over | 64.5% | |
| 17.5 Over | 60.9% | |
| 18.5 Over | 54.4% | OFFERED |
| 19.5 Over | 44.2% | below BE |
| 20.5 Over | 36.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18.5
Line movement
first 18.5→18.5no change
- First seen18.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.53
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.84
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.4
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.26
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.4%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 15 Ancient 16-13 | 8 Inferno 12-16 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 6 Cache 8-13 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-4 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 7 Cache 13-9 | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 12 Cache 8-13 | 12 Mirage 19-16 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 7 Cache 10-13 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 7 Cache 11-13 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 10 Ancient 13-4 | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 7 Cache 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 10 Dust2 13-16 | 5 Ancient 5-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 18 Ancient 19-22 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Nuke 16-12 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































