KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.1
Hit
43.4%
EV+
-24.8%
Edge
-0.4
L10
67%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.96
Hit
44.8%
EV+
-22.4%
Edge
-0.5
L10
67%

Rifler
ayuki
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
RISK · UNDER 29.5
≈ L5 29.0 · L20 28.9Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
6/9
L20
67%
6/9
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.77
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 9 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.9
6/9 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ayuki is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.667 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (6.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.1
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
43.4%
EV+
-24.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.4%
-8.3 →
Learned
35.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Under risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 9 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 66.7% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.14) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 9 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.9 kills vs line 29.5 (3/9 over). KPR 0.69, HS 55%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.9 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.1 vs line 29.5 → -0.4 (-1.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 66.7% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 6.5%
Performance (last 18 maps)
Kills/Map
14.44
HS/Map
7.94
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.69
ADR
72.5
KAST
75.9%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.2 · KPR 0.705 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Anubis)13 · KPR 0.62 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.667
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.78%
Final projected kills29.14
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 51.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.4%
~24 kills · 37r76.2%
Normal60.1%
~30 kills · 45r52%
Close maps12%
~31 kills · 47r45.3%
Overtime6.5%
~35 kills · 53r28.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
23.1r
+2% KPR here
M2 Anubis
21.1r
-11% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.5%
Overtime6.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
9 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 28.9 · hit 6/9 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 36.8% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 39.1% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 43.4% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 45.8% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 23, 08:32 PM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.71
HS%
63.8%
K/D
1.01
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
48.8%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.9
HS%
51.4%
K/D
1.67
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
50%
K/D
1.37
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.23
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
30.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 10 Anubis 6-13 | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 17 Inferno 7-13 | 33 Dust2 16-14 | 50 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 18 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































