KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.8
Hit
44.8%
EV+
-22.5%
Edge
-1.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.1
Hit
51.3%
EV+
-11.1%
Edge
-1.4
L10
70%

Rifler
dziugss
FUT Esports vs TyLoo
RISK · UNDER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5SL16.5
▼ L5 13.4 · L20 15.7Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.63
Previous meeting · vs TyLoo
No meeting with TyLoo in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.7
11/18 hit at 16.5
Online
15.5
1/2 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dziugss is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 78.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 57.2% HS): below 0.704 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.1
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
51.3%
EV+
-11.1%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.3%
+1 →
Learned
52.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 78% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.82) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.3 headshots vs line 15.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 57%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.3 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.1 vs line 16.5 → -1.4 (-8.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.72
HS/Map
7.85
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.6
ADR
72.3
KAST
76.3%
HS%
57.2%
Multi-kill
11.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.3 · KPR 0.729 · 20r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.6 · KPR 0.636 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.704
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.99%
Final projected kills27.66
× realistic HS% (57.2%)15.1
TyLoo gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 65% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~13 HS · 34r85.2%
Normal51.2%
~15 HS · 42r62%
Close maps12.5%
~16 HS · 44r55.1%
Overtime10%
~18 HS · 50r34.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 78.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 78% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
20r
+13% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21r
-2% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 15.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 32.4% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 43% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 51.3% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 58.4% | |
| 18.5 Under | 61.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 15.5→16.5+1
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 23, 07:18 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
55.5%
K/D
1.04
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.84
Overpass
6 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.66
HS%
62%
K/D
0.93
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
56%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.54
HS%
67.8%
K/D
0.82
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.95
Cache
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
40%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 2 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Anubis 13-3 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 6 Cache 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Ancient 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Nuke 12-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Ancient 13-3 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 10 Overpass 5-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 7 Overpass 2-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 4 Overpass 7-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | B8 | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Overpass 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-12 | paiN | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 6 Overpass 3-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | NRG | 16 Ancient 16-13 | 12 Overpass 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































