KillsBetter playNeutral
Line
38.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
35.31
Hit
54.9%
EV+
-4.9%
Edge
-3.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.69
Hit
48.8%
EV+
-15.5%
Edge
-1.8
L10
60%
#88Ranked 88 of 277 on the board

Rifler
donk
Team Spirit vs TYLOO
NEUTRAL · UNDER 38.5
BEST UNDER · UD 39.5PP38.5UD39.5SL38.5
▼ L5 33.6 · L20 38.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 38.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.31
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
38
10/20 hit at 38.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm donk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 38.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 89.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 38 kills or fewer: below 0.967 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
35.31
Raw edge
-3.2
Cons. hit
54.9%
EV+
-4.9%
Rating
4.1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
38.5
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
54.9%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 36.5-40.5
All players · Kills
100%1 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (36.04) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.8 kills vs line 37.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 65%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.8 against a 37.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 35.31 vs line 38.5 → -3.19 (-8.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
19.02
HS/Map
12.4
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.8
ADR
85.3
KAST
71%
HS%
65.2%
Multi-kill
21.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)17.5 · KPR 0.881 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)18.5 · KPR 0.959 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.967
Base kills (Maps 1-2)36.6
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills36.04
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-7.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 38.5. Model: 69.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.4%
~30 kills · 33r93.9%
Normal37.6%
~36 kills · 41r66.6%
Close maps27.2%
~38 kills · 43r55.7%
Overtime7.8%
~43 kills · 49r25.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 89.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.6r
+11% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 38.5 (Under) · avg 33.8 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
38.5
Nearby lines
| 36.5 Under | 45.9% | below BE |
| 37.5 Under | 49.6% | below BE |
| 38.5 Under | 54.9% | OFFERED |
| 39.5 Under | 57.7% | |
| 40.5 Under | 59.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 38.5
Line movement
first 37.5→38.5+1
- Back on board37.5 → 38.5Oct 25, 12:18 AM
- Pulled37.5Oct 25, 12:14 AM
- First seen37.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.82
HS%
61.2%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.92
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.36
Cache
7 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.95
HS%
69.6%
K/D
1.41
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.78
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.87
HS%
68%
K/D
1.26
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
22.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 19 Anubis 13-10 | 9 Ancient 3-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 10 Mirage 9-13 | 18 Anubis 6-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 14 Dust2 7-13 | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 33 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 23 Anubis 13-10 | 38 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 20 Dust2 13-6 | 21 Cache 13-10 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 14 Cache 5-13 | 15 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 21 Mirage 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 21 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 35 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 21 Dust2 11-13 | 26 Nuke 13-11 | 47 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 11-13 | 33 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 34 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 25 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 21 Cache 13-9 | 31 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 24 Ancient 13-8 | 24 Cache 13-7 | 48 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 22 Cache 10-13 | 25 Anubis 16-13 | 47 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 25 Dust2 13-7 | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 22 Anubis 13-11 | 27 Nuke 14-16 | 49 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 27 Dust2 13-9 | 18 Mirage 13-9 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 22 Cache 9-13 | 17 Dust2 13-10 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 18 Ancient 13-3 | 29 Dust2 19-15 | 47 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































