KillsBetter playLean
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.81
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+3.3%
Edge
-5.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.96
Hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.4%
Edge
-3.5
L10
60%

Rifler
Lack1
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
LEAN · UNDER 16.5
▲ L5 16.4 · L20 14.8
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.26
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
14.8
13/20 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Lack1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 56% HS): below 0.773 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.96
Raw edge
-3.5
Cons. hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
38.1
Line
16.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.1%
-8.6 →
Learned
50.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.48) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.0 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 56%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.0 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 12.96 vs line 16.5 → -3.54 (-21.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.18
HS/Map
7.38
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.59
ADR
67.3
KAST
70.4%
HS%
56%
Multi-kill
13.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.3 · KPR 0.595 · 19r
Map 2 (Cache)5.2 · KPR 0.491 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.773
Base kills (Maps 1-2)20.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.87%
Final projected kills20.5
× realistic HS% (56%)12.96
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 71.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~11 HS · 32r84.8%
Normal57.6%
~13 HS · 39r73.2%
Close maps10.5%
~14 HS · 41r69.9%
Overtime7.8%
~16 HS · 47r58.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19r
+7% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
-11% KPR here
Total
38.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 14.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 53% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 56.4% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 59.1% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 61.2% | |
| 18.5 Under | 63.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.3%
K/D
0.94
Cache
8 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.5
HS%
62.8%
K/D
0.76
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.6%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
46.3%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 2 Cache 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 12 Mirage 19-16 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 16 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 10 Cache 13-9 | 8 Anubis 16-13 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-0 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 1 Dust2 0-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 5 Anubis 6-13 | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 6 Cache 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 6 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | 300FPS | 10 Mirage 16-14 | 3 Cache 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | OT |







































































































































































