KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.07
Hit
37.2%
EV+
-35.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.68
Hit
45.5%
EV+
-21.2%
Edge
-0.8
L10
70%

Rifler
YEKINDAR
FURIA vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 18.5
BEST UNDER · PP 18.5PP18.5UD17.5
▼ L5 17.2 · L20 18.0Risk · Edge -0.8 far below ±2.0 +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 18.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.15
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18
13/20 hit at 18.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm YEKINDAR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 81.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 18 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 59.6% HS): below 0.757 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.68
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
45.5%
EV+
-21.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
18.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.5%
-6 →
Learned
39.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
43.2%146 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Under risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.89) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.5 headshots vs line 18.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 60%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.5 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.68 vs line 18.5 → -0.82 (-4.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.1
HS/Map
9
K/D
1
KPR
0.68
ADR
78.8
KAST
73.6%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
16.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.8 · KPR 0.737 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Cache)9.1 · KPR 0.751 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.757
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.49
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills30.02
× realistic HS% (59.6%)17.68
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18.5. Model: 55.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.7%
~15 HS · 34r77%
Normal37.5%
~18 HS · 43r54%
Close maps20.8%
~19 HS · 44r50.3%
Overtime10%
~22 HS · 50r33.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
M2 Cache
20.6r
+2% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18.5 (Under) · avg 17.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
18.5
Nearby lines
| 16.5 Under | 29.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 37.6% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 45.5% | OFFERED |
| 19.5 Under | 51.3% | below BE |
| 20.5 Under | 54.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18.5
Line movement
first 18.5→18.5no change
- Back on board18.5 → 18.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled18.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board18.5 → 18.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled18.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen18.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.68
HS%
66%
K/D
0.97
Cache
7 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
60%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.1%
K/D
1.1
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.7%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
54.3%
K/D
1.17
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Ancient 16-19 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 9 Cache 10-13 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 15 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 1 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 22 Cache 16-14 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 13-8 | 15 Mirage 16-19 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 8 Ancient 14-16 | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 9 Cache 11-13 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Vitality | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 11 Cache 11-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ |







































































































































































