KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.65
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.0%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.79
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.0%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%

Rifler
MATYS
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 16.5
BEST OVER · PP 16.5PP16.5UD17.5
▼ L5 16.4 · L20 17.9Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±6.16
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
1/2 hit · avg 15.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
9
Under 16.5 ✗
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
22
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.2
12/19 hit at 16.5
Online
13
0/1 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MATYS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~25 kills at 66.7% HS): 0.592 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.79
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.5%
+8.6 →
Learned
61.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.95) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.2 headshots vs line 18.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 67%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.2 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.79 vs line 16.5 → +0.29 (1.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.45
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.67
ADR
72.2
KAST
73.3%
HS%
66.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.8 · KPR 0.631 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.1 · KPR 0.587 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.592
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.46
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills25.42
× realistic HS% (66.7%)16.79
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 51.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~14 HS · 35r30%
Normal48.8%
~17 HS · 42r48.4%
Close maps12.3%
~18 HS · 45r56.4%
Overtime14.4%
~20 HS · 51r70.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
-12% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 18.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 61.8% | |
| 15.5 Over | 56.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 52.5% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 48.7% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 44.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 18→16.5-1.5
- Back on board18 → 16.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled18Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen18Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.62
HS%
65.4%
K/D
0.91
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.55
HS%
67.1%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
67.3%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.61
HS%
67.1%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
67.5%
K/D
0.89
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.49
HS%
67.5%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Ancient 13-1 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 3 Cache 7-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 13 Anubis 16-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 16 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 8 Ancient 13-4 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Ancient 13-8 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 6 Cache 8-13 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 14 Mirage 19-17 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 17 Inferno 19-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 11 Cache 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 12 Anubis 16-12 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 7 Cache 13-5 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 5 Mirage 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































