KillsLean
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.29
Hit
59.4%
EV+
+2.8%
Edge
+2.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.18
Hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.2%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%

Rifler
kL1o
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
LEAN · OVER 14.5
≈ L5 15.8 · L20 15.8
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
1/1 hit · avg 19 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
19
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.8
12/20 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kL1o is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~28 kills at 54.3% HS): 0.601 KPR over ~44 rounds. His Kills line is 26.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.18
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
14.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.3%
+7.9 →
Learned
69.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 54%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.18 vs line 14.5 → +1.68 (11.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.6
HS/Map
7.92
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.63
ADR
74.5
KAST
72.7%
HS%
54.3%
Multi-kill
14.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.6 · KPR 0.666 · 21.1r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.7 · KPR 0.691 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.601
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.15
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills30.11
× realistic HS% (54.3%)16.18
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 63.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~14 HS · 37r39.2%
Normal42.8%
~16 HS · 44r60.3%
Close maps22.8%
~17 HS · 48r70.7%
Overtime12.2%
~20 HS · 54r83.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21.1r
+6% KPR here
M2 Nuke
23.3r
+10% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 16.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 65.6% | |
| 13.5 Over | 63.6% | |
| 14.5 Over | 61.3% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 56.4% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 51.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
56%
K/D
0.82
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.1%
K/D
0.99
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.9%
K/D
0.92
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 15 Nuke 13-16 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-23 | WBT Academy | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 4 Anubis 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Inferno 14-16 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 5 Ancient 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 11 Ancient 13-5 | 5 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 5 Dust2 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 7 Dust2 4-13 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 11 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 12 Nuke 16-14 | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Inferno 16-12 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 14 Anubis 16-13 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 4 Anubis 3-13 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































