KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.93
Hit
60%
EV+
+3.9%
Edge
+3.4
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.3
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.8%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%

Rifler
Xant3r
Nemiga vs Legacy
LEAN · OVER 14.5
PP14.5
≈ L5 17.4 · L20 17.8
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.01
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.3
2/4 hit at 14.5
Online
17.6
11/16 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Xant3r is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 56% HS): 0.606 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.3
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.8%
Rating
1.6/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
54.4%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.83) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.8 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 56%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.8 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.3 vs line 14.5 → +1.8 (12.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.85
HS/Map
8.88
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.72
ADR
81
KAST
72.7%
HS%
56%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.1 · KPR 0.665 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.7 · KPR 0.663 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.606
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.33
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.22%
Final projected kills28.27
× realistic HS% (56%)16.3
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 61.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~14 HS · 36r40.2%
Normal50.6%
~16 HS · 43r60.3%
Close maps5.8%
~17 HS · 46r66.9%
Overtime16.7%
~20 HS · 52r79.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
-2% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 17.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 63.5% | |
| 13.5 Over | 59.2% | |
| 14.5 Over | 54.4% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 48.6% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 44.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 15.5→14.5-1
- Back on board15.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 09:08 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
52%
K/D
1.14
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
53.6%
K/D
1.3
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.2
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 11 Cache 7-13 | 14 Nuke 16-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 11 Cache 13-11 | 10 Dust2 16-13 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 5 Cache 13-6 | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 18 Mirage 16-12 | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Mirage 22-20 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 6 Cache 13-5 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 4 Cache 13-9 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 11 Mirage 16-14 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 3 Cache 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Cache 13-3 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 5 Cache 13-4 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 13 Dust2 16-13 | 4 Anubis 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 5 Ancient 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































