KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.33
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.8%
Edge
-1.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.94
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
-1.6
L10
70%
#109Ranked 109 of 277 on the board

Rifler
flameZ
Vitality vs The MongolZ
LEAN · UNDER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5UD17.5
▲ L5 17.4 · L20 16.3LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.99
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.3
14/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm flameZ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 57.8% HS): below 0.801 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.94
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
37.8
Line
17.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
54.1%
+2.3 →
Learned
56.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%204 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.32) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 58%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.94 vs line 17.5 → -1.56 (-8.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.8 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.05
HS/Map
8.12
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.74
ADR
76.8
KAST
75.6%
HS%
57.8%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.1 · KPR 0.654 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.2 · KPR 0.777 · 18.7r
Required KPR to clear0.801
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.91%
Final projected kills26.5
× realistic HS% (57.8%)15.94
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 69.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~13 HS · 32r86.2%
Normal39.7%
~17 HS · 40r57.8%
Close maps18.9%
~17 HS · 40r55.8%
Overtime7.8%
~20 HS · 46r33.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.1r
-18% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.7r
-2% KPR here
Total
37.8r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Under | 32.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 42.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 54.1% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Under | 60.8% | |
| 19.5 Under | 64.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 16→17.5+1.5
- Moved up16.5 → 17.5Oct 25, 05:24 AM
- Moved up16 → 16.5Oct 25, 03:26 AM
- First seen16Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.13
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.79
Cache
8 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.17
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.89
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.41
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Cache 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 4 Anubis 7-13 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 7 Inferno 13-2 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 7 Anubis 9-13 | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 6 Anubis 13-5 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 10 Dust2 13-1 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 13-4 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 7 Cache 13-5 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 4 Cache 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 5 Nuke 16-14 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 6 Dust2 13-2 | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 14 Cache 13-16 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 14 Nuke 16-14 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 16 | W | Under ✓ |








































































































































































