KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.81
Hit
56.9%
EV+
-1.5%
Edge
-2.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.64
Hit
55.7%
EV+
-3.6%
Edge
-1.4
L10
50%

Rifler
dgt
9z vs Vitality
RISK · UNDER 29
BEST UNDER · PP 29PP29UD28.5
▼ L5 27.8 · L20 29.8Risk · Edge -2.2 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.67
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
1/1 hit · avg 22 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
22
Under 29 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.8
10/20 hit at 29
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dgt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 15.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.716 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.81
Raw edge
-2.2
Cons. hit
56.9%
EV+
-1.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.9%
-8.7 →
Learned
48.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
44.5%299 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.39) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.6 kills vs line 25.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 54%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.6 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.81 vs line 29 → -2.19 (-7.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
8
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.71
ADR
79.9
KAST
79.5%
HS%
53.7%
Multi-kill
16%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)12.8 · KPR 0.672 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)13.5 · KPR 0.651 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.716
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.48%
Final projected kills26.39
Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 68% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.6%
~23 kills · 34r88.8%
Normal44.9%
~28 kills · 42r55.7%
Close maps10.3%
~29 kills · 43r50%
Overtime12.2%
~33 kills · 49r24.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 15.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 16% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
M2 Mirage
21.1r
-3% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 28.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 43.4% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 52.4% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 56.9% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 61.5% | |
| 31 Under | 64.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 25.5→29+3.5
- Back on board25.5 → 29Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
59.3%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
48.5%
K/D
1.22
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.74
HS%
39.3%
K/D
1.1
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.05
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 9 Cache 11-13 | 17 Inferno 4-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 15 Inferno 13-11 | 14 Nuke 13-1 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 10 Inferno 3-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 20 Mirage 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 14 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 14 Dust2 3-13 | 22 Mirage 11-13 | 36 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Ancient 8-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 15 Nuke 7-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 24 Cache 13-3 | 18 Nuke 13-4 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 10 Dust2 2-13 | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 14 Cache 4-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 25 Ancient 17-19 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 14 Mirage 16-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 20 Mirage 13-9 | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 16 Nuke 13-10 | 26 Inferno 17-19 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Mirage 16-13 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 18 Dust2 14-16 | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | OT |







































































































































































