KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.03
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.37
Hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.6%
Edge
+0.4
L10
30%
#67Ranked 67 of 277 on the board

AWPer
zorte
BetBoom vs Nemiga
RISK · OVER 30.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP30.5UD30.5SL30.5
▲ L5 35.4 · L20 30.4Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.78
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.4
9/20 hit at 30.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zorte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 61.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.67 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (21.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.03
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.5%
+8.3 →
Learned
64.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.59) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.3 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 34%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.3 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.03 vs line 30.5 → +1.53 (5.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.18
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.68
ADR
69.1
KAST
73%
HS%
33.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)15.6 · KPR 0.657 · 23.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.9 · KPR 0.682 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.67
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.44
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.49%
Final projected kills30.59
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 60.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.2%
~27 kills · 38r24.3%
Normal35.5%
~30 kills · 43r45.9%
Close maps24.4%
~34 kills · 49r72.9%
Overtime18.9%
~39 kills · 55r89.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 61.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 62% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
23.7r
-3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.8r
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 31.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 63.8% | |
| 29.5 Over | 62.1% | |
| 30.5 Over | 56.5% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 52.7% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 48.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
33%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.8
HS%
39.6%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
26%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
40%
K/D
0.91
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
25%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 19 Anubis 10-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 28 Ancient 19-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 25 Dust2 16-14 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 24 Nuke 16-13 | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 25 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 19 Cache 16-14 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 17 Cache 14-16 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 20 Mirage 13-7 | 19 Anubis 13-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 23 Anubis 16-14 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 16 Cache 13-8 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 20 Anubis 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 8 Cache 2-13 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 18 Mirage 10-13 | 26 Dust2 13-6 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 11 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 12 Overpass 8-13 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































