HeadshotsLean
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.71
Hit
63%
EV+
+9.1%
Edge
+3.2
L10
50%
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Rifler
xerolte
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
LEAN · OVER 16.5
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP18UD16.5SL16.5
≈ L5 18.6 · L20 19.1
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.75
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.8
7/12 hit at 16.5
Online
21.1
5/8 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xerolte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~30 kills at 56.2% HS): 0.655 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.71
Raw edge
+3.2
Cons. hit
63%
EV+
+9.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
16.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
63%
+4 →
Learned
67%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.19) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.0 headshots vs line 16.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 56%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.0 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 19.71 vs line 16.5 → +3.21 (19.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.02
HS/Map
9.57
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
71.8%
HS%
56.2%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)10.3 · KPR 0.77 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)9.9 · KPR 0.85 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.655
Base kills (Maps 1-2)36.17
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills35.92
× realistic HS% (56.2%)19.71
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-4.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 75% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~17 HS · 38r48.8%
Normal50.8%
~20 HS · 46r78.1%
Close maps10.3%
~21 HS · 48r83.5%
Overtime12.2%
~24 HS · 54r93.3%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
+3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+14% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 17.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 65.5% | |
| 15.5 Over | 64.5% | |
| 16.5 Over | 63% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 59.2% | |
| 18.5 Over | 53.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.88
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.39
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.78
HS%
57.8%
K/D
1.21
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
62.4%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.07
Cache
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
39.6%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.77
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 3 Inferno 1-13 | 11 Cache 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 5 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 7 Dust2 19-17 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 8 Ancient 16-14 | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 5 Cache 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Ancient 7-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 9 Ancient 13-5 | 17 Inferno 12-16 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 24 Nuke 22-20 | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 18 Ancient 14-16 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 3 Cache 7-13 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 7 Nuke 11-13 | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ |








































































































































































