KillsBetter playLean
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.77
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-19.9%
Edge
-2.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.5
Hit
43.9%
EV+
-24.0%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%

AWPer
Junyme
G2 Ares vs The Last Resort
RISK · UNDER 12.5
▼ L5 11.4 · L20 12.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.21
Previous meeting · vs The Last Resort
1/2 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 10-13 · Inferno 13-8 · Split
7
Under 12.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-11 · Cache 13-8 · W
15
Over 12.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.8
2/4 hit at 12.5
Online
11.5
9/15 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Junyme is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 39.6% HS): below 0.764 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (19.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.5
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
43.9%
EV+
-24.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.9%
-8.4 →
Learned
35.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
40.2%189 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 20% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.55) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.8 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 40%. Next: vs The Last Resort, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.8 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.5 vs line 12.5 → -1 (-8.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.37
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.72
ADR
75.5
KAST
74.7%
HS%
39.6%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)5.8 · KPR 0.703 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Anubis)5.8 · KPR 0.705 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.764
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.27%
Final projected kills29.16
× realistic HS% (39.6%)11.5
The Last Resort gives up (40 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 59.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~10 HS · 35r79.4%
Normal39.5%
~11 HS · 40r67.1%
Close maps16.7%
~12 HS · 44r54.7%
Overtime19.8%
~14 HS · 50r38.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
-9% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.6r
-9% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 12.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Under | 30.7% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 36.3% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 43.9% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Under | 53.1% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 59% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→offno change
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
40.2%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.76
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.13
Cache
8 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
34.1%
K/D
1.16
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.51
HS%
28.8%
K/D
0.61
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.18
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
50%
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Illyrians | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | mellren | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Ancient 14-16 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | ex-6666 | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | BAKS | 5 Cache 3-13 | 8 Inferno 16-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-14 | The Last Resort | 3 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Inferno 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Sangal | 9 Anubis 13-16 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | NAVI Junior | 5 Anubis 11-13 | 5 Cache 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | INFINITE | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 15 Ancient 16-14 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | RBLS | 6 Anubis 2-13 | 3 Cache 16-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Famalicão | 2 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Ancient 13-4 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | STATE | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 5 Cache 19-15 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | The Last Resort | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Cache 13-8 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | NAVI Junior | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 11 Ancient 16-12 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | INOX Division | 9 Ancient 5-13 | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 2 Dust2 6-13 | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Cache 13-10 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | QUAZAR | 3 Inferno 13-7 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Honvéd | 3 Inferno 13-7 | 5 Dust2 16-12 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | BAKS | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 8 Cache 9-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ |








































































































































































