KillsRisk
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.5
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.54
Hit
57.2%
EV+
-1.0%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%

Rifler
malbsMd
Team Liquid vs MOUZ
RISK · OVER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5UD17.5
▼ L5 15.6 · L20 18.1Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±5.91
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 18 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 13-16 · Inferno 16-12 · Split
18
Over 17.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
18.1
9/19 hit at 17.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm malbsMd is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~27 kills at 66.2% HS): 0.594 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 25.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (32.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.54
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
57.2%
EV+
-1.0%
Rating
3.7/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.2%
-8.7 →
Learned
48.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 47.4% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.8) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.2 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 66%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 19.2 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.54 vs line 17.5 → +1.04 (5.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.68
HS/Map
9.05
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.2
KAST
70.5%
HS%
66.2%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)10.6 · KPR 0.691 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)9.2 · KPR 0.668 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.594
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.16%
Final projected kills29.91
× realistic HS% (66.2%)18.54
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 57% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.6%
~16 HS · 37r32.7%
Normal52.6%
~20 HS · 47r61.8%
Close maps4.3%
~20 HS · 48r64%
Overtime10.5%
~22 HS · 54r78.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.4r
M2 Inferno
21.1r
-3% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.6%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 19.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 63.3% | |
| 16.5 Over | 60.1% | |
| 17.5 Over | 57.2% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 49.6% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 45.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 16.5→17.5+1
- Back on board15.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 08:14 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 10:11 AM
- Back on board16.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 03:10 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 23, 03:08 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.14
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
71.3%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
10.9
KPR
0.55
HS%
76.3%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
58.5%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.89
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.48
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
54.1%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.69
HS%
60%
K/D
0.87
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 12 Ancient 13-16 | 6 Inferno 16-12 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 3 Cache 4-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 4 Cache 13-2 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 1 Dust2 0-13 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 8 Nuke 9-13 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 13 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 15 Cache 16-13 | 13 Anubis 13-2 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 7 Cache 13-4 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 7 Anubis 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 10 Cache 13-9 | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 17 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Betclic | 14 Cache 13-11 | 11 Anubis 10-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | fnatic | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Anubis 13-5 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | 9INE | 9 Cache 13-4 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-01 | Betclic | 12 Cache 12-16 | 5 Nuke 13-11 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-30 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 5 Anubis 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































