KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.09
Hit
50.9%
EV+
-11.9%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.14
Hit
51.4%
EV+
-11.0%
Edge
-0.4
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
huNter-
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 26
BEST OVER · UD 25.5PP26UD25.5
▼ L5 23.4 · L20 26.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Medium
±6.48
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
0/2 hit · avg 17 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
8
Under 26 ✗
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
26
Under 26 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.1
11/19 hit at 26
Online
13
0/1 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm huNter- is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.622 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.09
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
50.9%
EV+
-11.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.9%
+8.6 →
Learned
59.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
56.7%201 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.24) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.7 kills vs line 27.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 58%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.7 against a 27.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.09 vs line 26 → +0.09 (0.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.2
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.58
ADR
65.8
KAST
73.5%
HS%
58.3%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)12.9 · KPR 0.617 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.3 · KPR 0.689 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.622
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.29
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills27.24
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 50.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~22 kills · 35r18.8%
Normal48.8%
~26 kills · 42r45.4%
Close maps12.3%
~28 kills · 45r57.9%
Overtime14.4%
~32 kills · 51r79%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
+18% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 24.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Over | 60.6% | |
| 25 Over | 58% | |
| 26 Over | 50.9% | OFFERED |
| 27 Over | 47.2% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 43.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 27→26-1
- Back on board27 → 26Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled27Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen27Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.14
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.57
HS%
59.2%
K/D
0.88
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.96
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.9%
K/D
0.86
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.43
HS%
54.3%
K/D
0.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 10 Ancient 7-13 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 7 Cache 7-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 19 Mirage 10-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 16 Anubis 16-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 16 Ancient 16-14 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 14 Inferno 13-9 | 15 Ancient 13-4 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 7 Cache 8-13 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 20 Mirage 19-17 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 22 Dust2 9-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 15 Anubis 7-13 | 28 Inferno 19-16 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 19 Anubis 16-12 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 11 Anubis 13-3 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 17 Cache 13-5 | 22 Ancient 13-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 5 Anubis 6-13 | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































