KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.9
Hit
53.8%
EV+
-6.8%
Edge
+0.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.09
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.9%
Edge
+0.6
L10
60%

Rifler
noway
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 30.5
≈ L5 29.8 · L20 29.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
57%
8/14
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.43
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
0/2 hit · avg 21.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
16
Under 30.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
27
Under 30.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.2
7/13 hit at 30.5
Online
35
1/1 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm noway is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.687 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.9
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
53.8%
EV+
-6.8%
Rating
2.1/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.8%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.37) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.3 kills vs line 30.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 55%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.3 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.9 vs line 30.5 → +0.4 (1.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.79
HS/Map
8.07
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.67
ADR
71.7
KAST
75.2%
HS%
54.6%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)13.7 · KPR 0.595 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)17.7 · KPR 0.838 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.687
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills31.37
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 52.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~26 kills · 37r21.5%
Normal30.6%
~31 kills · 44r49.6%
Close maps27.5%
~33 kills · 48r63.6%
Overtime13.6%
~37 kills · 54r82.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
-11% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
+25% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 29.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 58.9% | |
| 29.5 Over | 56.6% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 53.8% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 48.9% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 45.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.56
HS%
55.1%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.94
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.62
Cache
4 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
55.4%
K/D
1.14
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.5
HS%
63.2%
K/D
0.75
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.76
HS%
55.9%
K/D
1.17
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
51.9%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 19 Anubis 14-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 17 Dust2 13-4 | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 18 Cache 16-14 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 23 Cache 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 20 Nuke 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 18 Cache 16-12 | 3 Inferno 13-6 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 17 Anubis 13-6 | 17 Nuke 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 17 Nuke 13-2 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 15 Cache 8-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 21 Nuke 11-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































