KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.34
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.7%
Edge
-0.2
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.62
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.0%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%

Rifler
n1ssim
Legacy vs Nemiga
RISK · OVER 14.5
BEST OVER · UD 13.5PP14.5UD13.5
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 15.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.49
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.1
12/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm n1ssim is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 54.7% HS): 0.618 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (20.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.62
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.0%
Rating
1.6/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.5%
+8.6 →
Learned
61.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.22) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.3 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 55%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.3 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.62 vs line 14.5 → +0.12 (0.8%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.8
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.64
ADR
72.8
KAST
69.1%
HS%
54.7%
Multi-kill
14.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.6 · KPR 0.653 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.6 · KPR 0.652 · 21.5r
Required KPR to clear0.618
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.99
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.57%
Final projected kills27.83
× realistic HS% (54.7%)14.62
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 51.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.2%
~12 HS · 36r25.8%
Normal53.1%
~15 HS · 43r50.1%
Close maps18.9%
~16 HS · 46r59.4%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 52r76.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 66% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.5r
+3% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 14.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 66% | |
| 13.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 14.5 Over | 52.5% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 43.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 30.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
50%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.13
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.52
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.86
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
65%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 9 Nuke 13-16 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-10 | 3 Inferno 5-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 3 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 13 Nuke 14-16 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 23 | W | Over ✓ |







































































































































































