KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.23
Hit
54.6%
EV+
-5.4%
Edge
+0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.41
Hit
53.1%
EV+
-8.0%
Edge
+0.9
L10
40%

Rifler
xureba
Tropa do KinGui vs MEIA NOITE
RISK · OVER 26.5
▲ L5 27.8 · L20 25.6Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.95
Previous meeting · vs MEIA NOITE
No meeting with MEIA NOITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
23.3
2/3 hit at 26.5
Online · this match
25.9
8/17 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xureba is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.585 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (47%) or blowout (20.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.23
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
54.6%
EV+
-5.4%
Rating
4.6/10
Exp. rounds
45.3
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.6%
-5.2 →
Learned
49.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 47% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.98) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.2 kills vs line 26.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 55%. Next: vs MEIA NOITE, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.2 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.23 vs line 26.5 → +0.73 (2.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.3 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.78
HS/Map
7.05
K/D
0.87
KPR
0.62
ADR
69.9
KAST
74.3%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
11.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)14.1 · KPR 0.61 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.8 · KPR 0.582 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.585
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.01
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills26.98
MEIA NOITE gives up (46 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 53.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.1%
~23 kills · 38r27.8%
Normal40.7%
~27 kills · 44r48.1%
Close maps29.2%
~29 kills · 49r61.2%
Overtime10%
~33 kills · 55r77.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 65% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
-7% KPR here
Total
45.3r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 27.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 60.9% | |
| 25.5 Over | 58.9% | |
| 26.5 Over | 54.6% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 49.7% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 44.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
14 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.93
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.43
HS%
59.1%
K/D
0.63
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
38.7%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
5
KPR
0.18
HS%
60%
K/D
0.24
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Galorys | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 30 Ancient 14-16 | 41 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | LP | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Yawara | 13 Anubis 7-13 | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Isurus | 20 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 7 Mirage 13-7 | 11 Ancient 13-5 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Procyon | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | ALKA | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 18 Ancient 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Galorys | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 13 Ancient 11-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | ALKA | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Turma do Pagode | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 18 Anubis 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | METANOIA Wolves | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Bounty Hunters | 9 Ancient 5-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Grêmio | 20 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Procyon | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 18 Inferno 14-16 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-27 | Isurus | 5 Ancient 13-2 | 17 Inferno 10-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Fluxo | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 5 Nuke 12-16 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-25 | Yawara | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Imperial | 18 Mirage 12-16 | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | Galorys | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Yawara | 21 Ancient 13-11 | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ |









































































































































































