KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.28
Hit
48.2%
EV+
-16.5%
Edge
-0.7
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.99
Hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.6%
Edge
+0.5
L10
80%

Rifler
doc
DENDELE CS vs FURIA Esports
RISK · OVER 16.5
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP17UD16.5
≈ L5 18.4 · L20 18.9Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0 +2
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
72%
13/18
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±5.64
Previous meeting · vs FURIA Esports
1/1 hit · avg 18 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
18
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
20.1
10/12 hit at 16.5
Online
16.5
3/6 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm doc is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~30 kills at 57.2% HS): 0.71 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 26.5: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (26.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.99
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.6%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.4%
+6.3 →
Learned
59.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Blowout loss risk — team only 18% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 72.2% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.0 headshots vs line 15.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 57%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 20.0 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.99 vs line 16.5 → +0.49 (3.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.5
HS/Map
9.44
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.76
ADR
84.1
KAST
78.2%
HS%
57.2%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.5 · KPR 0.697 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)7.9 · KPR 0.729 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.71
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.93
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.03%
Final projected kills28.63
× realistic HS% (57.2%)16.99
FURIA Esports gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 53.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~14 HS · 34r30.1%
Normal53.5%
~17 HS · 42r53.7%
Close maps9%
~18 HS · 43r59.5%
Overtime11%
~21 HS · 49r75.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 18% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-3% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
+2% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 20.0 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 61.4% | |
| 15.5 Over | 58.7% | |
| 16.5 Over | 53.4% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 45.3% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 41.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- Moved down17.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 08:22 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 08:14 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 04:16 PM
- Moved up14.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
- Moved down15.5 → 14.5Oct 23, 03:30 PM
- Moved down16.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 01:16 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.74
HS%
50.9%
K/D
1.1
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
62.6%
K/D
1.09
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
58%
K/D
1.31
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.93
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
53%
K/D
0.96
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.94
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 4 Mirage 13-4 | 19 Nuke 8-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 6 Mirage 13-16 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Ancient 16-13 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 10 Cache 7-13 | 10 Mirage 12-16 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 3 Ancient 8-13 | 2 Cache 7-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 14 Inferno 14-16 | 19 Cache 13-9 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 6 Nuke 13-0 | 11 Anubis 13-3 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 7 Cache 13-11 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 12 Cache 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































