KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.35
Hit
43%
EV+
-25.5%
Edge
-0.1
L10
67%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.19
Hit
34.7%
EV+
-39.9%
Edge
+0.7
L10
44%

Rifler · IGL
senka
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
RISK · UNDER 25.5
▼ L5 23.0 · L20 24.0Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
6/9
L20
67%
6/9
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.75
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 9 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
24
6/9 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm senka is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.577 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (6.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.35
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
43%
EV+
-25.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43%
-2.2 →
Learned
40.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43%207 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 9 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 66.7% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 9 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.0 kills vs line 25.5 (3/9 over). KPR 0.58, HS 52%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 24.0 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.35 vs line 25.5 → -0.15 (-0.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 66.7% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 6.5%
Performance (last 18 maps)
Kills/Map
12
HS/Map
6.28
K/D
0.79
KPR
0.58
ADR
70.7
KAST
67.8%
HS%
52.3%
Multi-kill
12%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13 · KPR 0.567 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Anubis)13.4 · KPR 0.638 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.577
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.78%
Final projected kills26.35
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 51.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.4%
~21 kills · 37r81.3%
Normal60.1%
~26 kills · 45r48.6%
Close maps12%
~27 kills · 47r39.5%
Overtime6.5%
~31 kills · 53r19.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
23.1r
-2% KPR here
M2 Anubis
21.1r
+11% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.5%
Overtime6.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
9 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 24.0 · hit 6/9 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 32.1% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 37.5% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 43% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 46.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 51.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.77
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
50%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.67
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.43
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.56
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.5
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.61
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Ancient 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 22 Anubis 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 10 Anubis 6-13 | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 14 Dust2 16-14 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 11 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































