KillsLean
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.01
Hit
55.8%
EV+
-3.3%
Edge
-2.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.25
Hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.1%
Edge
-1.8
L10
70%

Rifler
dziugss
FUT vs TYLOO
LEAN · UNDER 16
BEST UNDER · PP 16PP16UD15.5
▼ L5 12.4 · L20 14.9
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.97
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Ancient 13-6 · W
12
Under 16 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.8
11/18 hit at 16
Online · this match
15.5
1/2 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dziugss is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 57.2% HS): below 0.646 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.25
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.3
Line
16
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.5%
+2.3 →
Learned
61.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.04) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.3 headshots vs line 16.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 57%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 14.3 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 14.25 vs line 16 → -1.75 (-10.9%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 70% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.3 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.03
HS/Map
7.45
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.57
ADR
70.3
KAST
75.2%
HS%
57.2%
Multi-kill
10%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.6 · KPR 0.638 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.582 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.646
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.24%
Final projected kills26.3
× realistic HS% (57.2%)14.25
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 72.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.8%
~12 HS · 36r84.1%
Normal59.7%
~14 HS · 43r63.8%
Close maps14.7%
~15 HS · 46r54.3%
Overtime7.8%
~17 HS · 52r35.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
20.8r
+11% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.5r
+1% KPR here
Total
43.3r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 14.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 37.3% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 49.3% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 59.5% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 64% | |
| 18 Under | 65.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16.5→16-0.5
- Back on board16.5 → 16Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.84
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
56%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
64.2%
K/D
0.77
Overpass
5 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.7%
K/D
0.77
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.95
Cache
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
40%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 3 Nuke 13-9 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 2 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Anubis 13-3 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 6 Cache 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Ancient 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Nuke 12-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Ancient 13-3 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 10 Overpass 5-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 7 Overpass 2-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 4 Overpass 7-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | B8 | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Overpass 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-12 | paiN | 4 Nuke 8-13 | 6 Overpass 3-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































