KillsLean
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.41
Hit
62.6%
EV+
+8.4%
Edge
+3.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.24
Hit
66.3%
EV+
+14.8%
Edge
+3.7
L10
80%

Rifler
stefienson
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
TAKE · OVER 13.5
≈ L5 16.6 · L20 16.2
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.03
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
1/1 hit · avg 22 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
22
Over 13.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
16.2
13/20 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm stefienson is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~24 kills at 59.3% HS): 0.506 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.24
Raw edge
+3.7
Cons. hit
66.3%
EV+
+14.8%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
13.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
66.3%
+4.2 →
Learned
70.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
60.7%224 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 82.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.51) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.3 headshots vs line 13.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 59%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.3 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 17.24 vs line 13.5 → +3.74 (27.7%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
8.1
K/D
0.86
KPR
0.6
ADR
69.4
KAST
72.8%
HS%
59.3%
Multi-kill
14.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.5 · KPR 0.603 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)10 · KPR 0.702 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.506
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.06%
Final projected kills29.53
× realistic HS% (59.3%)17.24
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 82.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~15 HS · 38r58.2%
Normal38.6%
~17 HS · 44r77.5%
Close maps24.8%
~18 HS · 48r87.3%
Overtime14.4%
~21 HS · 54r94.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21r
+1% KPR here
M2 Nuke
24r
+17% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 16.3 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 67.4% | |
| 12.5 Over | 66.8% | |
| 13.5 Over | 66.3% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 63.9% | |
| 15.5 Over | 58.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen13.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
61.1%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
64.9%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
61.4%
K/D
0.77
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
60.8%
K/D
0.8
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
50.7%
K/D
0.74
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.63
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 16 Nuke 13-16 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 7 Inferno 14-16 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 6 Inferno 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 12 Dust2 13-5 | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Nuke 11-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 5 Ancient 13-5 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 6 Dust2 4-13 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 4 Anubis 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 13 Nuke 16-14 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Inferno 16-12 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 3 Dust2 4-13 | 10 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 16 Anubis 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 6 Anubis 3-13 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Bebop | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 15 Nuke 16-12 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































