KillsBetter playTake
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.18
Hit
66.4%
EV+
+14.9%
Edge
+4.7
L10
80%
HeadshotsTake
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.49
Hit
64.6%
EV+
+12.0%
Edge
+3.0
L10
60%

Rifler
laxiee
Alter Ego vs NEXVOID
TAKE · OVER 14.5
▼ L5 16.4 · L20 17.4
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.8
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
13
Under 14.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
—
no series
Online
17.4
13/20 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm laxiee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55.5% HS): 0.568 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.49
Raw edge
+3.0
Cons. hit
64.6%
EV+
+12.0%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
46
Line
14.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
64.6%
+0.5 →
Learned
65.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.95) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.3 headshots vs line 14.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 56%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.3 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 17.49 vs line 14.5 → +2.99 (20.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 46 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.62
HS/Map
8.68
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.66
ADR
69
KAST
76.6%
HS%
55.5%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.9 · KPR 0.701 · 23r
Map 2 (Ancient)9 · KPR 0.706 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.568
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.36
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.06%
Final projected kills32.34
× realistic HS% (55.5%)17.49
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 78.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~15 HS · 39r50%
Normal36.3%
~17 HS · 45r71.4%
Close maps22.5%
~19 HS · 49r82.8%
Overtime16.7%
~21 HS · 55r92.3%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23r
+7% KPR here
Total
46r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 16.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 67.2% | |
| 13.5 Over | 66.6% | |
| 14.5 Over | 64.6% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 60.1% | |
| 16.5 Over | 55.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 25, 03:30 AM
- Back on board14.5 → 15.5Oct 25, 01:10 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 25, 01:09 AM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 25, 01:09 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 25, 01:08 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
60.1%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.72
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.03
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.3%
K/D
1.03
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.8%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.81
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.04
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Lynn Vision | 4 Anubis 13-9 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Just Swing | 6 Cache 10-13 | 15 Dust2 19-15 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Chinggis Warriors | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | The KnockoutX | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 9 Cache 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitalem Aerem | 8 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | The Huns | 4 Ancient 13-11 | 11 Cache 12-16 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Kaleido | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 8 Dust2 14-16 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-07 | Legion | 9 Dust2 13-2 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 11 Ancient 13-1 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | Iowa Stormboar | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | Club 333 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 12 Dust2 14-16 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-04-20 | insane players | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-19 | regain | 17 Mirage 16-12 | 13 Ancient 19-17 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-04-13 | Voca | 3 Mirage 5-13 | 7 Overpass 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-11 | Akimbo | 7 Overpass 13-3 | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-10 | FarmVille | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 14 Ancient 13-11 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-09 | Akimbo | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-07 | Akimbo | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 14 Inferno 8-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ |









































































































































































