KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.62
Hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.94
Hit
46.7%
EV+
-19.1%
Edge
-0.6
L10
60%

AWPer
lash
Tropa do KinGui vs MEIA NOITE
RISK · UNDER 30.5
▲ L5 31.2 · L20 28.5Risk · Edge -0.9 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.87
Previous meeting · vs MEIA NOITE
No meeting with MEIA NOITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
19.7
3/3 hit at 30.5
Online · this match
30.1
10/17 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm lash is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.673 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.62
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.3
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.2%
+5 →
Learned
50.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.94) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.2 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 37%. Next: vs MEIA NOITE, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 29.2 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.62 vs line 30.5 → -0.88 (-2.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.3 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.25
HS/Map
5.33
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.67
ADR
70.3
KAST
74.5%
HS%
37.4%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15 · KPR 0.647 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)14 · KPR 0.632 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.673
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.98
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills28.94
MEIA NOITE gives up (46 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 57.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.1%
~25 kills · 38r86.3%
Normal40.7%
~29 kills · 44r61.9%
Close maps29.2%
~32 kills · 49r43%
Overtime10%
~36 kills · 55r20.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
23.2r
-3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
-6% KPR here
Total
45.3r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 29.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 29.5% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 36.3% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 45.2% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 51.9% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 56% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
14 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
40.8%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.62
HS%
34.4%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
33%
K/D
1.18
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
33.9%
K/D
0.92
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
56.5%
K/D
0.85
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
24
KPR
0.86
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.26
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Galorys | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 20 Ancient 14-16 | 30 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | LP | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Yawara | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 20 Dust2 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Isurus | 22 Inferno 13-11 | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 22 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Ancient 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Procyon | 18 Ancient 11-13 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | ALKA | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Galorys | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | ALKA | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 20 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Turma do Pagode | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 12 Anubis 7-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | METANOIA Wolves | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Bounty Hunters | 6 Ancient 5-13 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Grêmio | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Procyon | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 21 Inferno 14-16 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-27 | Isurus | 14 Ancient 13-2 | 17 Inferno 10-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Fluxo | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 24 Nuke 12-16 | 30 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-25 | Yawara | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 14 Ancient 13-7 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Imperial | 11 Mirage 12-16 | 16 Inferno 7-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | Galorys | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Yawara | 14 Ancient 13-11 | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ |









































































































































































