KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.98
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Edge
+2.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.56
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.7%
Edge
+1.1
L10
50%
#46Ranked 46 of 277 on the board

Rifler
n1ssim
Legacy vs DENDELE
LEAN · OVER 27.5
BEST OVER · UD 26.5PP27.5UD26.5SL27.5
▲ L5 31.0 · L20 28.4
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.75
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.4
12/20 hit at 27.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm n1ssim is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.659 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.5%) or blowout (22.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.98
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Rating
4.9/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
27.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.5%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
55.9%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- High form volatility
- Blowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 57% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.55) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.9 kills vs line 27.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 53%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.9 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 29.98 vs line 27.5 → +2.48 (9.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.2
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.64
ADR
72.7
KAST
69.7%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
13.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.5 · KPR 0.715 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.1 · KPR 0.711 · 19.9r
Required KPR to clear0.659
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.73
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills29.55
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 61.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~25 kills · 35r35.2%
Normal51%
~30 kills · 42r60.2%
Close maps16.7%
~32 kills · 45r69%
Overtime10%
~36 kills · 51r84%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Ancient
21.8r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.9r
+3% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 29.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 61.9% | |
| 26.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 27.5 Over | 58.5% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 54.5% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 51.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.67
HS%
49.1%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
59.2%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
50%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
54%
K/D
1.14
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.44
HS%
50%
K/D
0.68
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
65%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 34 Ancient 23-25 | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 49 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 18 Nuke 13-16 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-10 | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 11 Cache 4-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 14 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 21 Nuke 14-16 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 19 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 23 Ancient 13-2 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































