KillsRisk
Line
23
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.32
Hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.7%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.92
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.3%
Edge
-0.6
L10
50%
#184Ranked 184 of 277 on the board

AWPer
Jee
TYLOO vs Team Spirit
RISK · UNDER 23
BEST UNDER · UD 24.5PP23UD24.5SL23.5
▼ L5 22.2 · L20 26.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 23 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
31%
5/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.72
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.5
5/11 hit at 23
Online
30.8
0/5 hit at 23
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jee is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 10.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 22 kills or fewer: below 0.62 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
22.32
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.1
Line
23
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.3%
+1.7 →
Learned
51%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 21-25
All players · Kills
31.9%47 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 31.2% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 31.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 1% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.2 kills vs line 23.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 35%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.2 against a 23.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.32 vs line 23 → -0.68 (-3.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 37.1 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
13.22
HS/Map
4.56
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.6
ADR
65.5
KAST
70.5%
HS%
34.5%
Multi-kill
11.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.4 · KPR 0.652 · 18r
Map 2 (Ancient)11 · KPR 0.597 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.62
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.14
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.31%
Final projected kills22.38
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 23. Model: 54.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.6%
~19 kills · 32r77.4%
Normal46.4%
~25 kills · 41r36%
Close maps10.6%
~24 kills · 41r37.6%
Overtime1.4%
~28 kills · 47r16.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 10.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 10% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
18r
+15% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.1r
+5% KPR here
Total
37.1r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23 (Under) · avg 24.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
23
Nearby lines
| 21 Under | 39.3% | below BE |
| 22 Under | 43.3% | below BE |
| 23 Under | 49.3% | OFFERED |
| 24 Under | 55% | below BE |
| 25 Under | 58.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23
Line movement
first 23→23no change
- First seen23Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
35.6%
K/D
1.39
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
38.4%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
32.6%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
32.2%
K/D
0.91
Cache
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.82
HS%
27.3%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
36.4%
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Mirage 13-6 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 16 Mirage 13-2 | 19 Inferno 13-2 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 21 Inferno 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 21 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-2 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 12 Ancient 13-3 | 14 Mirage 13-1 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 20 Cache 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 18 Mirage 7-13 | 13 Inferno 4-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































