KillsBetter playNeutral
Line
38.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
35.31
Hit
54.9%
EV+
-4.9%
Edge
-3.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.69
Hit
48.8%
EV+
-15.5%
Edge
-1.8
L10
60%
#197Ranked 197 of 277 on the board

Rifler
donk
Team Spirit vs TYLOO
LEAN · UNDER 24.5
BEST UNDER · UD 25.5PP24.5UD25.5SL25.5
▼ L5 20.8 · L20 24.8LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.8
9/20 hit at 24.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm donk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 89.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 24 HS or fewer (under ~38 kills at 65.2% HS): below 0.944 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
22.69
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
48.8%
EV+
-15.5%
Rating
1.5/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
24.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
48.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Headshots
100%1 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.5) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.5 headshots vs line 24.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 65%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.5 against a 24.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.69 vs line 24.5 → -1.81 (-7.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
19.02
HS/Map
12.4
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.8
ADR
85.3
KAST
71%
HS%
65.2%
Multi-kill
21.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.4 · KPR 0.881 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.1 · KPR 0.959 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.944
Base kills (Maps 1-2)36.6
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills36.04
× realistic HS% (65.2%)22.69
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 64.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.4%
~19 HS · 33r88.5%
Normal37.6%
~23 HS · 41r62.1%
Close maps27.2%
~24 HS · 43r53.2%
Overtime7.8%
~28 HS · 49r28.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 89.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.6r
+11% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 22.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 39.4% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 44.2% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 48.8% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 56.7% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 59.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24→24.5+0.5
- Moved up24 → 24.5Oct 25, 03:56 AM
- First seen24Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.82
HS%
61.2%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.92
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.36
Cache
7 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.95
HS%
69.6%
K/D
1.41
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.78
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.87
HS%
68%
K/D
1.26
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
22.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 11 Anubis 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Cache 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 11 Cache 5-13 | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 20 Nuke 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 13 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 16 Cache 10-13 | 19 Anubis 16-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 15 Cache 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 17 Dust2 19-15 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































