KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.11
Hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.7%
Edge
-1.4
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.9
Hit
37.4%
EV+
-35.2%
Edge
+0.4
L10
50%
#170Ranked 170 of 277 on the board

AWPer
sn0w
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 30.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP30.5SL30.5
▼ L5 26.6 · L20 29.7Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.24
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
30.8
2/4 hit at 30.5
Online · this match
29.4
9/15 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Sn0w is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.711 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.11
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.7%
Rating
2.1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.19) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.3 kills vs line 30.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 37%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.3 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.11 vs line 30.5 → -1.39 (-4.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.84
HS/Map
5.5
K/D
1.22
KPR
0.71
ADR
71.3
KAST
76.3%
HS%
37.1%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.4 · KPR 0.771 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)13.8 · KPR 0.664 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.711
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.81
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.01%
Final projected kills30.19
Acend gives up (32 series)0% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 60.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~25 kills · 36r88.1%
Normal52.2%
~31 kills · 45r51.5%
Close maps13.3%
~31 kills · 46r46.7%
Overtime5.8%
~35 kills · 52r22.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
+9% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-6% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 28.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 38.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 45.4% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 49.8% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 57.6% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 60.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.79
HS%
34.6%
K/D
1.37
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
33.7%
K/D
1.18
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
39.3%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
51.9%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
31.2%
K/D
1.3
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
40%
K/D
0.77
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.73
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.38
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 20 Mirage 13-8 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 19 Mirage 13-10 | 12 Cache 3-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 14 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 19 Mirage 13-9 | 22 Ancient 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 14 Dust2 13-5 | 13 Cache 13-4 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 15 Inferno 13-1 | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 21 Ancient 16-14 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 23 Ancient 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 9 Cache 13-8 | 18 Mirage 6-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 18 Mirage 12-16 | 17 Dust2 7-13 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 24 Cache 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-4 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 13 Inferno 8-13 | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Anubis 13-2 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 19 Ancient 11-13 | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































