KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.47
Hit
54%
EV+
-6.5%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.33
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
+1.3
L10
40%

AWPer
Gratisfaction
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
RISK · OVER 11
PP11
≈ L5 11.8 · L20 12.2Risk · Edge +1.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 11 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.27
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
0/1 hit · avg 6 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
6
Under 11 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.5
2/6 hit at 11
Online
12.4
7/14 hit at 11
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Gratisfaction is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 73.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~30 kills at 40.4% HS): 0.696 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73%) or blowout (42.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
12.33
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Rating
4.7/10
Exp. rounds
39.1
Line
11
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.7%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 9-13
All players · Headshots
58.7%104 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout win risk — team 74% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.56) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.3 headshots vs line 11.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.81, HS 40%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.3 against a 11.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.33 vs line 11 → +1.33 (12.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.1 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
1.21
KPR
0.81
ADR
82.2
KAST
74.6%
HS%
40.4%
Multi-kill
20.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.6 · KPR 0.84 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)6 · KPR 0.8 · 19r
Required KPR to clear0.696
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.14%
Final projected kills31.09
× realistic HS% (40.4%)12.33
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+5.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11. Model: 62.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps42.6%
~11 HS · 33r37%
Normal34.9%
~14 HS · 43r67.1%
Close maps16.9%
~13 HS · 43r66%
Overtime5.6%
~15 HS · 49r80.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 73.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 74% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-4% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19r
-9% KPR here
Total
39.1r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)42.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Over) · avg 12.3 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
| 9 Over | 64.6% | |
| 10 Over | 60.4% | |
| 11 Over | 54.7% | OFFERED |
| 12 Over | 49.3% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 43.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11
Line movement
first 11→11no change
- First seen11Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
15 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
41.6%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
39.1%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
43.4%
K/D
0.93
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.84
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.48
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
34.9%
K/D
1.3
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.32
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
75%
K/D
1.6
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 13 Dust2 17-19 | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Cache 13-2 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 1 Anubis 11-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Inferno 16-19 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Inferno 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 6 Inferno 2-13 | 5 Ancient 4-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 5 Ancient 13-4 | 5 Dust2 13-3 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Alter Ego | 6 Cache 13-9 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 3 Nuke 13-5 | 3 Inferno 11-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Inferno 13-8 | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Alter Ego | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Ancient 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 2 Ancient 13-1 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 1 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Anubis 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































