
AWPer
tucks
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
PLAYABLE · UNDER 24.5
PP24.5
≈ L5 23.0 · L20 22.1
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.33
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
No meeting with Off Chops in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
20.6
7/9 hit at 24.5
Online · this match
23.5
8/11 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tucks is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.636 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
20.54
Raw edge
-4.0
Cons. hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.8%
Rating
9/10
Exp. rounds
38.5
Line
24.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
61.6%
-3.7 →
Learned
57.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
41.3%138 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 70.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.48) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.2 kills vs line 24.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 55%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 22.2 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 20.54 vs line 24.5 → -3.96 (-16.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.5 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.07
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
0.77
KPR
0.57
ADR
66
KAST
67%
HS%
54.9%
Multi-kill
11.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.1 · KPR 0.504 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Anubis)9.4 · KPR 0.54 · 17.9r
Required KPR to clear0.636
Base kills (Maps 1-2)20.04
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.79%
Final projected kills19.48
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 70.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps38.2%
~17 kills · 33r87.1%
Normal47.6%
~22 kills · 42r65.1%
Close maps8.6%
~22 kills · 41r66.1%
Overtime5.6%
~25 kills · 47r49%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 26.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 26% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
20.6r
-7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
17.9r
Total
38.5r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.2%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 22.2 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 55.7% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 58.3% | |
| 24.5 Under | 61.6% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 63.1% | |
| 26.5 Under | 64.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.73
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
48.4%
K/D
0.76
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
50.6%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.53
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.73
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.46
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.61
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.75
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Mindfreak | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-11 | Abyssal | 15 Ancient 7-13 | 7 Anubis 0-1 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Mindfreak | 16 Nuke 13-10 | 24 Anubis 13-4 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Anubis 5-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Anubis 13-10 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | Mindfreak | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 15 Anubis 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Arcade | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-17 | FlyQuest | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-10 | Lynn Vision | 13 Nuke 4-13 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-18 | Rooster | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 13 Anubis 11-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-16 | Rooster | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 20 Dust2 16-13 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-15 | MARKandLARRY | 15 Dust2 16-13 | 15 Nuke 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-10 | Masked Regime | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-25 | Kaleido | 5 Mirage 2-13 | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-13 | Chinggis Warriors | 17 Nuke 6-13 | 12 Inferno 4-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-12 | Rare Atom | 3 Inferno 3-13 | 18 Dust2 13-5 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | TYLOO | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-03 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Anubis 5-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-02 | Abyssal | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































