KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.55
Hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.6%
Edge
-3.0
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.65
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
-1.9
L10
50%

AWPer
bsd
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
RISK · UNDER 10.5
▼ L5 7.2 · L20 9.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
59%
10/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.32
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
9.8
10/17 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bsd is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 35.5% HS): below 0.725 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.65
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Rating
4/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.1%
+7.8 →
Learned
62.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 58.8% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.27) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.6 headshots vs line 10.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 35%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.6 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.65 vs line 10.5 → -1.85 (-17.6%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 11.5%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.76
HS/Map
4.88
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.73
ADR
72.9
KAST
73.8%
HS%
35.5%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)4.1 · KPR 0.56 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.2 · KPR 0.725 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.725
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills26.1
× realistic HS% (35.5%)8.65
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 66.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~7 HS · 34r81.4%
Normal35%
~9 HS · 40r71.6%
Close maps28.5%
~9 HS · 44r65.4%
Overtime11.5%
~11 HS · 50r54.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 35% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Ancient
20.5r
-18% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.3r
+6% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime11.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 10.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 38.8% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 55.1% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 59% | |
| 12.5 Under | 63.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 10.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.56
HS%
43.2%
K/D
0.84
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.78
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.4
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
40.9%
K/D
1.25
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
26.8%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
8.3
KPR
0.47
HS%
40%
K/D
0.69
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
27%
K/D
0.82
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Procyon | 0 Inferno 2-13 | 3 Dust2 13-9 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Galorys | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 3 Ancient 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-30 | METANOIA Wolves | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-29 | ALKA | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 6 Ancient 13-8 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ALKA | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 4 Dust2 12-16 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Low Cortisol BR | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Nuke 11-13 | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Mira | 0 Dust2 2-13 | 8 Ancient 16-12 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 4 Cache 13-16 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Cache 4-13 | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Grêmio | 5 Nuke 13-9 | 3 Ancient 11-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Procyon | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Inferno 2-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | ex-MIBR Academy | 7 Ancient 5-13 | 4 Mirage 13-16 | 11 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-27 | Sementes do Mal | 3 Cache 13-5 | 2 Mirage 4-6 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































