KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.82
Hit
46%
EV+
-20.4%
Edge
-1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.39
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%

Rifler
MiQ
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
RISK · UNDER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSUD15.5SL15.5
▼ L5 13.6 · L20 14.7Risk · Edge -1.1 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.49
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.3
8/12 hit at 15.5
Online
15.4
4/8 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MiQ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 51.8% HS): below 0.677 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.39
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Rating
4.3/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
46.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.0 headshots vs line 15.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 52%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.0 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.39 vs line 15.5 → -1.11 (-7.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.2
HS/Map
7.35
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.65
ADR
74.9
KAST
71.5%
HS%
51.8%
Multi-kill
14.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.1 · KPR 0.691 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.6 · KPR 0.604 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.677
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.69
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.90%
Final projected kills28.43
× realistic HS% (51.8%)14.39
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-4.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 67.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~12 HS · 37r83.3%
Normal46.6%
~15 HS · 45r59.7%
Close maps16.7%
~15 HS · 47r52.9%
Overtime10%
~17 HS · 53r34.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
22.9r
+6% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.3r
-8% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 14.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 32.5% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 46% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 55.1% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 61.1% | |
| 17.5 Under | 65.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
50.3%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
59.2%
K/D
0.84
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.7%
K/D
0.79
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
41%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.07
Cache
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.87
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 4 Inferno 1-13 | 6 Cache 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 9 Inferno 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 10 Dust2 19-17 | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 8 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 2 Inferno 13-4 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 7 Cache 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 6 Ancient 13-5 | 11 Inferno 12-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 3 Inferno 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 5 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 10 Nuke 22-20 | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Inferno 13-3 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 7 Nuke 11-13 | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | FlyQuest | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | Rare Atom | 2 Dust2 1-13 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































