KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.21
Hit
41.2%
EV+
-28.7%
Edge
-0.3
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.91
Hit
38.5%
EV+
-33.3%
Edge
+0.4
L10
30%

Rifler
VLDN
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 27.5
≈ L5 28.2 · L20 29.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
32%
6/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.88
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
0/1 hit · avg 28 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-7 · Dust2 14-16 · Split
28
Over 27.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
29.2
6/19 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm VLDN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.661 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.21
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
41.2%
EV+
-28.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.6
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41.2%
+5.4 →
Learned
46.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 31.6% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 31.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.79) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 27.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 55%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.21 vs line 27.5 → -0.29 (-1.1%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.6 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.58
HS/Map
8.05
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
78%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
19%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14.1 · KPR 0.691 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.7 · KPR 0.612 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.661
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.09%
Final projected kills26.79
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~23 kills · 35r79.6%
Normal39.1%
~28 kills · 42r51.6%
Close maps30.7%
~29 kills · 45r42%
Overtime5.8%
~33 kills · 51r21.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 38% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Cache
20.6r
M2 Dust2
21r
-12% KPR here
Total
41.6r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 31.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 30.3% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 33.7% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 41.2% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 46.6% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 49.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 05:06 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.35
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
50%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.9%
K/D
1.01
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1.14
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.95
HS%
25%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 18 Cache 13-16 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 16 Cache 11-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Inferno 13-1 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Cache 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 14 Cache 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 18 Cache 13-10 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 20 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 25 Nuke 10-13 | 25 Dust2 13-11 | 50 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 16 Inferno 13-7 | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Saint Sinners | 0 Inferno 0-1 | 23 Mirage 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 13 Mirage 7-13 | 16 Cache 13-2 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 13 Dust2 14-16 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 14 Cache 13-5 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 20 Anubis 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 16 Cache 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 10 Inferno 5-13 | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |









































































































































































