KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.35
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.14
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.6%
Edge
-0.4
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
stanislaw
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · OVER 24.5
PP24.5
≈ L5 26.8 · L20 26.1Risk · Edge +0.8 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.5
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
22.8
1/4 hit at 24.5
Online · this match
27.1
8/14 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm stanislaw is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.54 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73.5%) or blowout (14.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.35
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Rating
4.4/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.1%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
58.7%138 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.3 kills vs line 24.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 51%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 25.3 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.35 vs line 24.5 → +0.85 (3.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.06
HS/Map
6.61
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.56
ADR
64.8
KAST
74.7%
HS%
50.6%
Multi-kill
11.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)12.8 · KPR 0.533 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)12 · KPR 0.551 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.54
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.59
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills24.73
BAKS gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 56.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.9%
~21 kills · 38r24.2%
Normal56%
~24 kills · 44r46.7%
Close maps8.4%
~27 kills · 49r67.9%
Overtime20.7%
~31 kills · 55r85.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 67% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
23.8r
-5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.6r
-2% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 25.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 63.8% | |
| 23.5 Over | 59.3% | |
| 24.5 Over | 54.1% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 43.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.53
HS%
48.6%
K/D
0.81
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.55
HS%
47%
K/D
0.8
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.59
HS%
50%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.9%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
68%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 22 Cache 16-14 | 16 Nuke 17-19 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 11 Cache 13-3 | 8 Nuke 13-2 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 15 Nuke 13-11 | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 12 Nuke 8-13 | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 14 Mirage 14-16 | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 11 Cache 13-6 | 18 Nuke 14-16 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 19 Mirage 16-14 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 22 Nuke 25-23 | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 14 Inferno 16-13 | 8 Cache 16-13 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 15 Inferno 13-6 | 21 Anubis 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 16 Cache 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 16 Inferno 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Nuke 4-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































