KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.33
Hit
48.4%
EV+
-16.2%
Edge
-1.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.11
Hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.2%
Edge
-1.4
L10
50%

AWPer
maxxkor
DENDELE CS vs FURIA Esports
RISK · UNDER 8.5
PP8.5
▼ L5 7.4 · L20 8.3Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 8.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
44%
8/18
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±1.76
Previous meeting · vs FURIA Esports
0/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
11
Over 8.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
7.9
6/12 hit at 8.5
Online
9.2
2/6 hit at 8.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm maxxkor is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 8.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 8 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 29.8% HS): below 0.703 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
7.11
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
8.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
61.9%
-8.5 →
Learned
53.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 6.5-10.5
All players · Headshots
48.1%52 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 44.4% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 44.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (6.98) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 7.9 headshots vs line 8.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 30%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 7.9 against a 8.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 7.11 vs line 8.5 → -1.39 (-16.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14
HS/Map
4.17
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.64
ADR
68.8
KAST
74%
HS%
29.8%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)3.7 · KPR 0.591 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)3.3 · KPR 0.574 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.703
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.03%
Final projected kills23.44
× realistic HS% (29.8%)7.11
FURIA Esports gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 8.5. Model: 78.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~6 HS · 34r84.5%
Normal53.5%
~7 HS · 42r69.1%
Close maps9%
~8 HS · 43r64.6%
Overtime11%
~9 HS · 49r50.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 18% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
-5% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 8.5 (Under) · avg 7.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
8.5
Nearby lines
| 6.5 Under | 33.4% | below BE |
| 7.5 Under | 50.6% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 61.9% | OFFERED |
| 9.5 Under | 66.4% | |
| 10.5 Under | 67.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 8.5
Line movement
first 8.5→offno change
- Pulled8.5Oct 24, 04:16 PM
- First seen8.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
31.7%
K/D
1.08
Cache
9 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.6
HS%
32.7%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.48
HS%
38.6%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
23.8%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
20.8
KPR
0.88
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.63
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
24.6%
K/D
1.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 3 Mirage 13-4 | 2 Nuke 8-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Inferno 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 3 Mirage 13-16 | 4 Cache 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 1 Inferno 13-7 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 5 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Ancient 16-13 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 2 Cache 13-7 | 9 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 1 Cache 13-6 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 3 Cache 13-3 | 9 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 5 Cache 7-13 | 4 Mirage 12-16 | 9 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 6 Cache 7-13 | 10 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 4 Inferno 14-16 | 2 Cache 13-9 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 2 Anubis 13-10 | 9 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 2 Nuke 13-0 | 3 Anubis 13-3 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 6 Cache 13-11 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 5 Mirage 10-13 | 6 Cache 13-8 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ |







































































































































































