KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.62
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Edge
+2.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.31
Hit
50.8%
EV+
-12.0%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%

Rifler
destiny
Galorys vs paiN
RISK · OVER 14
▼ L5 11.4 · L20 14.8Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.37
Previous meeting · vs paiN
0/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
12
Under 14 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.8
2/6 hit at 14
Online
15.7
8/14 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm destiny is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~31 kills at 48.1% HS): 0.641 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 28.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53%) or blowout (22.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.31
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
50.8%
EV+
-12.0%
Rating
2/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.8%
+7.2 →
Learned
58%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
60.6%216 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 53% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.56) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.1 headshots vs line 14.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 48%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.1 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.31 vs line 14 → +0.31 (2.2%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.43
HS/Map
7.42
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.73
ADR
77.8
KAST
76.6%
HS%
48.1%
Multi-kill
18.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8 · KPR 0.738 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.5 · KPR 0.694 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.641
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills32.34
× realistic HS% (48.1%)14.31
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 52.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~12 HS · 38r27.6%
Normal50.6%
~14 HS · 46r46%
Close maps16.7%
~15 HS · 49r52.7%
Overtime10%
~17 HS · 55r66.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
22.7r
+2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
-5% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 14.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 60.1% | |
| 13 Over | 55% | below BE |
| 14 Over | 50.8% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 44.3% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 38% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→offno change
- Pulled14Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board14 → 14Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled14Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen14Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.74
HS%
47.2%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
47.2%
K/D
1.01
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
49.2%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.31
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.64
HS%
43.6%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.64
HS%
40%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 7 Inferno 9-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 2 Anubis 8-13 | 8 Inferno 16-14 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 3 Ancient 13-3 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 17 Ancient 16-14 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 5 Cache 13-6 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 4 Ancient 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 4 Nuke 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Ancient 25-28 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 11 Inferno 19-16 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Ancient 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 5 Cache 7-13 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 7 Cache 9-13 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































