KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.33
Hit
48.4%
EV+
-16.2%
Edge
-1.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.11
Hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.2%
Edge
-1.4
L10
50%

AWPer
maxxkor
DENDELE vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 25.5
BEST UNDER · UD 26.5PP25.5UD26.5
▼ L5 26.4 · L20 28.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
39%
7/18
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.07
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
0/1 hit · avg 30 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-07-24 · BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Anubis 13-6 · Mirage 6-13 · Split
30
Over 25.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.9
5/12 hit at 25.5
Online
26.2
2/6 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm maxxkor is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 18.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.628 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.33
Raw edge
-1.2
Cons. hit
48.4%
EV+
-16.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.4%
-1.9 →
Learned
46.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43%207 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 38.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 38.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.44) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.0 kills vs line 23.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 30%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.0 against a 23.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.33 vs line 25.5 → -1.17 (-4.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14
HS/Map
4.17
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.64
ADR
68.8
KAST
74%
HS%
29.8%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.5 · KPR 0.591 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)10.9 · KPR 0.574 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.628
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.03%
Final projected kills23.44
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 56.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.5%
~20 kills · 34r80.8%
Normal53.5%
~25 kills · 42r56.2%
Close maps9%
~26 kills · 43r49.3%
Overtime11%
~30 kills · 49r29.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 18.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 18% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
-5% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)20%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 28.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 41.7% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 45.1% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 48.4% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 51.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 56.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 23.5→25.5+2
- Back on board25.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board23.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled23.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen23.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
31.7%
K/D
1.08
Cache
9 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.6
HS%
32.7%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.48
HS%
38.6%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
23.8%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
20.8
KPR
0.88
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.63
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
24.6%
K/D
1.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 18 Mirage 13-16 | 9 Cache 3-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 18 Anubis 9-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 24 Ancient 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 25 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Cache 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Cache 13-3 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 9 Cache 7-13 | 14 Mirage 12-16 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 20 Ancient 8-13 | 14 Cache 7-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 15 Inferno 14-16 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 9 Nuke 13-0 | 16 Anubis 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 4 Nuke 2-13 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 18 Anubis 13-6 | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 15 Cache 13-11 | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | BESTIA | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 17 Cache 13-8 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ |







































































































































































