KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.85
Hit
45.9%
EV+
-20.5%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.4
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Edge
-1.1
L10
60%

Rifler
Altekz
STATE vs overTIME
RISK · UNDER 14.5
Risk · Edge -1.1 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.4
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
1/1 hit · avg 8 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
8
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
8
1/1 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
14.3
2/4 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Altekz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 48.1% HS): below 0.684 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.4
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Rating
2.1/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.2%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 5 recent series (need 8+)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 5 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.57) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 5 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (2/5 over). KPR 0.63, HS 48%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: 40% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 40% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (5 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.4 vs line 14.5 → -1.1 (-7.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10%
Performance (last 10 maps)
Kills/Map
13.5
HS/Map
6.5
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.63
ADR
74
KAST
76.1%
HS%
48.1%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.5 · KPR 0.649 · 24.4r
Map 2 (Anubis)6.1 · KPR 0.647 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.684
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.58
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.26%
Final projected kills28.22
× realistic HS% (48.1%)13.4
overTIME gives up (10 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 58.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.3%
~11 HS · 37r77.2%
Normal17.8%
~14 HS · 45r58.9%
Close maps38.9%
~14 HS · 47r54.9%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 53r41.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
24.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Anubis
19.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)48.9%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
5 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.0 · hit 3/5 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 42.9% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 46% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 49.2% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 54.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- Moved up13.5 → 14.5Oct 23, 11:58 PM
- First seen13.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
3 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
50.9%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
47.8%
K/D
1.44
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
5.5
KPR
0.37
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.48
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
43.8%
K/D
0.84
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.36
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.47
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.92
HS%
45.5%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 2 Nuke 13-1 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 4 Nuke 3-13 | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 3 Ancient 13-9 | 6 Cache 15-19 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ |








































































































































































