KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.51
Hit
26.3%
EV+
-54.4%
Edge
+1.5
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.17
Hit
40.7%
EV+
-29.5%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
#262Ranked 262 of 277 on the board

Rifler
dumau
Legacy vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 15.5
BEST UNDER · UD 16.5PP15.5UD16.5SL16.5
▲ L5 16.6 · L20 15.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.9
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.3
11/20 hit at 15.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dumau is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 48.5% HS): below 0.766 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.17
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
40.7%
EV+
-29.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
40.7%
-8.1 →
Learned
32.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.56) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.6 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 48%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.6 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.17 vs line 15.5 → -0.33 (-2.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.82
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.68
ADR
80.1
KAST
72.7%
HS%
48.5%
Multi-kill
17.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.1 · KPR 0.773 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.4 · KPR 0.671 · 19.9r
Required KPR to clear0.766
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills30.02
× realistic HS% (48.5%)15.17
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 53.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~13 HS · 35r78.1%
Normal51%
~15 HS · 42r54.3%
Close maps16.7%
~16 HS · 45r44.7%
Overtime10%
~18 HS · 51r26.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
21.8r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.9r
-9% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 15.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 22.8% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 32.6% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 40.7% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 48.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 55.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
52.1%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
40.8%
K/D
1.28
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
52.4%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.67
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.91
Cache
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
1
HS%
42.5%
K/D
1.82
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 17 Ancient 23-25 | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 6 Nuke 13-16 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-10 | 7 Inferno 5-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 4 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Mirage 16-14 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 8 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 3 Ancient 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Ancient 11-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 10 Nuke 14-16 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 9 Inferno 13-9 | 6 Ancient 13-2 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































