HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.41
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
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Rifler
yeda
Grêmio vs Yawara Esports
RISK · UNDER 14.5
▼ L5 14.8 · L20 16.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±8.41
Previous meeting · vs Yawara Esports
1/2 hit · avg 13.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 16-19 · Mirage 10-13 · L
21
Over 14.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-11 · Split
6
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
16.8
9/20 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm yeda is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~24 kills at 63% HS): below 0.552 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.41
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.1%
-7.1 →
Learned
39%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.24) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 63%. Next: vs Yawara Esports, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.41 vs line 14.5 → -0.09 (-0.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.32
HS/Map
8.4
K/D
0.85
KPR
0.56
ADR
63.4
KAST
67.6%
HS%
63%
Multi-kill
12.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)7.1 · KPR 0.533 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.562 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.552
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.82
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.96%
Final projected kills22.6
× realistic HS% (63%)14.41
Yawara Esports gives up (52 series)+5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.6%
~12 HS · 35r68.6%
Normal35.2%
~14 HS · 41r58.7%
Close maps24.8%
~15 HS · 45r52.3%
Overtime14.4%
~18 HS · 51r42.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 32% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
21.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20.3r
+7% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 16.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 38.4% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 43.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 46.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 48.9% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 51.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
63.6%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.58
HS%
67%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.49
HS%
67.6%
K/D
0.66
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.55
HS%
60.3%
K/D
0.79
Dust2
2 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.58
HS%
60.5%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 7 Mirage 13-3 | 4 Cache 10-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | JOGA DE TERNO | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Los Niños | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | BORRACHEIROS | 5 Inferno 10-13 | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Yawara | 12 Nuke 16-19 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | Galorys | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 20 Ancient 28-25 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Galorys | 16 Inferno 16-19 | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-30 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 12 Cache 17-19 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Procyon | 5 Inferno 10-13 | 4 Nuke 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Yawara | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 3 Mirage 13-11 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | your end | 14 Cache 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-1 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Isurus | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ALKA | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Keyd Stars | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | MEIA NOITE | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | paiN Academy | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | ODDIK | -1 Ancient 9-13 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 2 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Sementes do Mal | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Mirage 13-2 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | MEIA NOITE | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 17 Dust2 20-22 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-11 | cobblemon | 16 Mirage 16-14 | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | OT |









































































































































































