KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.95
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.2%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.07
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.7%
Edge
-0.4
L10
60%

Rifler
j0w
Yawara Esports vs Grêmio
RISK · OVER 28.5
≈ L5 30.0 · L20 28.9Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±8.15
Previous meeting · vs Grêmio
1/2 hit · avg 31.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 19-16 · Mirage 13-10 · W
39
Over 28.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 13-9 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
24
Under 28.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.4
2/5 hit at 28.5
Online · this match
29.3
8/15 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm j0w is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.648 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (75%) or blowout (27.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.95
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.2%
Rating
3.7/10
Exp. rounds
44
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
-3.9 →
Learned
48%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.6%334 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.5) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.8 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 56%. Next: vs Grêmio, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.95 vs line 28.5 → +0.45 (1.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.43
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.64
ADR
66.2
KAST
71.3%
HS%
55.6%
Multi-kill
14.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.4 · KPR 0.618 · 21.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)15.1 · KPR 0.689 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.648
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.90%
Final projected kills28.5
Grêmio gives up (54 series)+11.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 52.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.8%
~24 kills · 37r25.3%
Normal41.4%
~29 kills · 44r50%
Close maps14.1%
~31 kills · 47r60.7%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 53r78.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 68% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
21.9r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
+8% KPR here
Total
44r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 28.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 57.2% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 54.7% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 51.9% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 48.9% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 46% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Moved up28.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 08:44 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Anubis
14 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
55%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.71
HS%
54.3%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
62.6%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
46.3%
K/D
0.83
Cache
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.65
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.65
HS%
64.6%
K/D
0.87
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | your end | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 20 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Galorys | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 7 Ancient 2-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | ex-Keyd Stars | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Grêmio | 24 Nuke 19-16 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Cache 9-13 | 25 Ancient 18-22 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-01 | BORRACHEIROS | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 23 Ancient 13-9 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Anubis 5-13 | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | METANOIA Wolves | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 20 Anubis 14-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Grêmio | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Bounty Hunters | 12 Anubis 8-13 | 10 Nuke 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 25 Mirage 11-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Juventus | 7 Ancient 13-1 | 18 Anubis 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Galorys | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 6 Dust2 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 8 Cache 10-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 13-16 | 14 Anubis 14-16 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 12 Cache 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | paiN Academy | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 15 Anubis 19-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-27 | ODDIK | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 17 Mirage 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | PEAK | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 24 Dust2 13-5 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | BO |









































































































































































