KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.15
Hit
58.9%
EV+
+2.1%
Edge
+1.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.57
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.0%
Edge
+1.6
L10
70%
#43Ranked 43 of 277 on the board

Rifler
NertZ
G2 vs Aurora
RISK · OVER 31
BEST OVER · UD 30.5PP31UD30.5SL30.5
≈ L5 33.0 · L20 32.4Risk · Edge +1.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 31 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±5.16
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 38 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
34
Over 31 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
42
Over 31 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.4
11/20 hit at 31
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Nertz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.711 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.15
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
58.9%
EV+
+2.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.9%
+8.1 →
Learned
67%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29-33
All players · Kills
56.3%215 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.78) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.6 kills vs line 31.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 52%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.6 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 32.15 vs line 31 → +1.15 (3.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.2
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.75
ADR
85.9
KAST
73.8%
HS%
52%
Multi-kill
20.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)16 · KPR 0.759 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.8 · KPR 0.699 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.711
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills31.78
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31. Model: 58.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~27 kills · 37r19.6%
Normal46.3%
~32 kills · 43r49.4%
Close maps14.1%
~34 kills · 47r67.7%
Overtime16.7%
~39 kills · 53r87.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
-7% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Over) · avg 33.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Over | 63.8% | |
| 30 Over | 61.8% | |
| 31 Over | 58.9% | OFFERED |
| 32 Over | 55.1% | below BE |
| 33 Over | 50.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.07
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.63
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.89
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.73
HS%
45.8%
K/D
1.07
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.25
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 25 Dust2 19-22 | 41 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 18 Ancient 7-13 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-1 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 16 Cache 7-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 20 Mirage 10-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 28 Anubis 16-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 21 Ancient 16-14 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 16 Ancient 13-4 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 18 Ancient 13-8 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 15 Cache 8-13 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 28 Mirage 19-17 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 16 Dust2 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 16 Anubis 7-13 | 18 Inferno 19-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Cache 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 22 Inferno 13-5 | 20 Anubis 16-12 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 3-13 | 12 Anubis 13-3 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 19 Cache 13-5 | 30 Ancient 13-16 | 49 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































