KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.85
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.2%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16
Hit
43.1%
EV+
-25.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
30%

Rifler
timo
BESTIA vs Imperial
RISK · UNDER 16.5
▲ L5 18.2 · L20 16.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
High
±6.12
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
2/3 hit · avg 16.3 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
13
Under 16.5 ✓
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
16
Under 16.5 ✓
2026-08-15 · BetBoom Storm 4
Nuke 10-13 · Inferno 13-9 · Split
20
Over 16.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18
4/11 hit at 16.5
Online
15.1
5/9 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm timo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 56.1% HS): below 0.733 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
43.1%
EV+
-25.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.1%
-8.3 →
Learned
34.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.06) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.5 headshots vs line 16.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 56%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.5 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16 vs line 16.5 → -0.5 (-3.0%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.88
HS/Map
8.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.7
ADR
77.5
KAST
71%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.6 · KPR 0.669 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.679 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.733
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.65%
Final projected kills26.85
× realistic HS% (56.1%)16
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 53.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~13 HS · 34r73.9%
Normal57.6%
~16 HS · 41r55%
Close maps8.3%
~17 HS · 43r49.5%
Overtime10%
~20 HS · 49r34.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 18.5 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 33.4% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 37.2% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 43.1% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 51% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 56.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.1
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.53
HS%
70%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Cache 13-5 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 13 Cache 16-14 | 9 Mirage 19-16 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 10 Mirage 16-13 | 21 Inferno 22-19 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 1 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 6 Cache 7-13 | 3 Ancient 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 7 Cache 8-13 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 5 Cache 7-13 | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 5 Cache 9-13 | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ |







































































































































































