KillsPlayable
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.59
Hit
59.9%
EV+
+3.8%
Edge
+3.6
L10
80%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.53
Hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.1%
Edge
+2.0
L10
80%

Rifler · IGL
robo
Nemiga vs Legacy
PLAYABLE · OVER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5
▲ L5 18.4 · L20 17.1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.17
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
22.3
4/4 hit at 14.5
Online
15.9
10/16 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm robo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 56.1% HS): 0.605 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.53
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.1%
Rating
5.8/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
59.5%
+8.1 →
Learned
67.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.1 headshots vs line 14.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 56%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.1 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.53 vs line 14.5 → +2.03 (14.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
8.57
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
77.3%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
19.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.7 · KPR 0.717 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)8 · KPR 0.61 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.605
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.22%
Final projected kills28.05
× realistic HS% (56.1%)16.53
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 65.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~14 HS · 36r41.9%
Normal50.6%
~17 HS · 43r65.6%
Close maps5.8%
~18 HS · 46r73%
Overtime16.7%
~20 HS · 52r85.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
-13% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 18.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 63.9% | |
| 13.5 Over | 62.1% | |
| 14.5 Over | 59.5% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 54.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 49.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 09:08 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1.23
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.07
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.17
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 4 Cache 7-13 | 11 Nuke 16-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 4 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Dust2 13-4 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 11 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 9 Cache 13-11 | 14 Dust2 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 8 Cache 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 8 Mirage 16-12 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Mirage 22-20 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 8 Cache 13-5 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 5 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 7 Nuke 13-2 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Cache 13-6 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 10 Mirage 16-14 | 8 Nuke 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 7 Cache 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-3 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 7 Cache 13-4 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 10 Dust2 16-13 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 6 Mirage 13-1 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































