KillsBetter playLean
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.21
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.8%
Edge
-2.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.97
Hit
47.7%
EV+
-17.4%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%

Rifler
Magnojez
BetBoom vs Team Spirit
LEAN · UNDER 32.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP32.5UD32.5
▲ L5 31.8 · L20 30.5LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 32.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.8
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.5
12/20 hit at 32.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Magnojez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 33.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: below 0.722 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.21
Raw edge
-2.3
Cons. hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.8%
Rating
5.4/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
32.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
55.5%
-7.9 →
Learned
47.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
42.8%138 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 19% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.53) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.7 kills vs line 28.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 53%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.7 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.21 vs line 32.5 → -2.29 (-7.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.25
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.67
ADR
77.6
KAST
69.9%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.7 · KPR 0.619 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)15.8 · KPR 0.666 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.722
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.97
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.92%
Final projected kills29.53
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 32.5. Model: 68.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~25 kills · 38r91.2%
Normal36.2%
~28 kills · 42r78.3%
Close maps24.4%
~32 kills · 48r52.5%
Overtime18.9%
~36 kills · 54r27.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 33.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 34% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Anubis
21.7r
-2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.3r
+5% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Under) · avg 31.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Under | 44.2% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 51.1% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 55.5% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Under | 60.4% | |
| 34.5 Under | 63.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 28.5→32.5+4
- Back on board28.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.73
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.01
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.92
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.6
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 26 Ancient 19-16 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 8 Anubis 5-13 | 28 Dust2 16-14 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 21 Nuke 16-13 | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Anubis 13-4 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 14 Mirage 4-13 | 19 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 26 Cache 16-14 | 13 Anubis 13-11 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 20 Cache 14-16 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Anubis 13-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 26 Mirage 13-9 | 22 Anubis 16-14 | 48 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 26 Ancient 16-14 | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 13 Cache 13-8 | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 12 Nuke 3-13 | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 6 Cache 2-13 | 15 Ancient 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 22 Anubis 9-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 7 Overpass 8-13 | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | FURIA | 17 Overpass 6-13 | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-11 | The MongolZ | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 14 Mirage 13-6 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ |







































































































































































