KillsBetter playRisk
Line
35.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
33.53
Hit
48.5%
EV+
-15.9%
Edge
-2.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.32
Hit
37.1%
EV+
-35.7%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%
#276Ranked 276 of 277 on the board

AWPer
ZywOo
Vitality vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 15.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.25
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.3
8/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ZywOo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~35 kills at 43.4% HS): below 0.884 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.32
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
37.1%
EV+
-35.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.8
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
37.1%
-7.7 →
Learned
29.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.8) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.85, HS 43%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.32 vs line 14.5 → -0.18 (-1.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.8 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.57
HS/Map
7.62
K/D
1.47
KPR
0.85
ADR
87.9
KAST
79.1%
HS%
43.4%
Multi-kill
22.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.1 · KPR 0.875 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.7 · KPR 0.966 · 18.7r
Required KPR to clear0.884
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.91%
Final projected kills34.1
× realistic HS% (43.4%)14.32
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 51.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~12 HS · 32r72.8%
Normal39.7%
~15 HS · 40r48.2%
Close maps18.9%
~15 HS · 40r46.7%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 46r30.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.1r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.7r
+6% KPR here
Total
37.8r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 16.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 26.2% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 30.6% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 37.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 41.6% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 46% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.91
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.8
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
45.2%
K/D
1.29
Cache
8 maps
Kills
20.1
KPR
0.94
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.81
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.84
HS%
43.2%
K/D
1.31
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
43%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.72
HS%
50%
K/D
1.36
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Cache 13-10 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 14 Cache 13-8 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 1 Inferno 13-2 | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 2 Anubis 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 10 Dust2 13-1 | 8 Cache 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-5 | 11 Anubis 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 7 Nuke 16-14 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 2 Anubis 8-13 | 5 Cache 13-16 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 11 Nuke 16-14 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































