KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.82
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
-1.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.8
Hit
43.2%
EV+
-25.2%
Edge
-0.2
L10
30%
#250Ranked 250 of 277 on the board

Rifler
doc
DENDELE vs Legacy
RISK · UNDER 17
BEST UNDER · PP 17PP17UD16.5SL16.5
▼ L5 17.8 · L20 18.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
33%
6/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.92
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
19.6
3/13 hit at 17
Online
16.2
3/5 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm doc is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 57.3% HS): below 0.733 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.8
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
43.2%
EV+
-25.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.2%
-8.3 →
Learned
34.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15-19
All players · Headshots
40.3%191 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 33.3% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 33.3% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.37) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.4 headshots vs line 17.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 57%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.4 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.8 vs line 17 → -0.2 (-1.2%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.28
HS/Map
9.33
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.75
ADR
84
KAST
77.7%
HS%
57.3%
Multi-kill
18%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.6 · KPR 0.705 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)7.8 · KPR 0.715 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.733
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.63%
Final projected kills28.57
× realistic HS% (57.3%)16.8
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17. Model: 51.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.8%
~14 HS · 34r70.3%
Normal51.7%
~17 HS · 41r50.1%
Close maps13.5%
~18 HS · 43r42.9%
Overtime11%
~21 HS · 49r27.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
M2 Cache
19.1r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)24.5%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Under) · avg 19.4 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Under | 33.4% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 37.3% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 43.2% | OFFERED |
| 18 Under | 51.1% | below BE |
| 19 Under | 54.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
- First seen17Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.75
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.12
Cache
8 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.76
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.66
HS%
65%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
58%
K/D
1.31
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.92
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.94
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 8-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 4 Mirage 13-4 | 19 Nuke 8-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 6 Mirage 13-16 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Ancient 16-13 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 10 Cache 7-13 | 10 Mirage 12-16 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 3 Ancient 8-13 | 2 Cache 7-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 14 Inferno 14-16 | 19 Cache 13-9 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 6 Nuke 13-0 | 11 Anubis 13-3 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 7 Cache 13-11 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✓ |








































































































































































