KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.61
Hit
43.9%
EV+
-23.9%
Edge
-1.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.05
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.0%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%

Rifler
kauez
BESTIA vs Imperial
RISK · OVER 16
≈ L5 16.8 · L20 16.3Risk · Edge +0.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±5.39
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
1/2 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
22
Over 16 ✓
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
10
Under 16 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.1
10/18 hit at 16
Online
9
0/2 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kauez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~29 kills at 59.1% HS): 0.673 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (30.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.05
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.0%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.6%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Near the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.0 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 59%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.0 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.05 vs line 16 → +0.05 (0.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.8
HS/Map
8.15
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.1
KAST
71.6%
HS%
59.1%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.7 · KPR 0.731 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Ancient)7 · KPR 0.603 · 19.8r
Required KPR to clear0.673
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.87
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.96%
Final projected kills26.61
× realistic HS% (59.1%)16.05
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.7%
~14 HS · 34r24.1%
Normal46.8%
~17 HS · 42r47.7%
Close maps10.3%
~17 HS · 43r52.4%
Overtime12.2%
~20 HS · 49r69.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+19% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.8r
-2% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 17.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 59.3% | |
| 15 Over | 54% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 49.6% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 45.2% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 38.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→offno change
- Pulled16Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen16Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
57.5%
K/D
1.32
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.64
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.9%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
73.3%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
8.2
KPR
0.41
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.59
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.4
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.65
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 9 Cache 13-5 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 16-14 | 13 Mirage 19-16 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 15 Mirage 16-13 | 10 Inferno 22-19 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 2 Dust2 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 8 Cache 7-13 | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Ancient 4-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 8 Overpass 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 13 Nuke 13-4 | 14 Inferno 12-16 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ |







































































































































































