KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.63
Hit
53.1%
EV+
-8.0%
Edge
+2.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.66
Hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.2%
Edge
+0.7
L10
70%

Rifler
KaiR0N-
Nemiga vs Legacy
RISK · OVER 18
PP18
▼ L5 18.4 · L20 20.6Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 18 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.22
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.5
2/4 hit at 18
Online
21.2
12/16 hit at 18
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KaiR0N- is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~32 kills at 58.7% HS): 0.718 KPR over ~43 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.66
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.2%
Rating
2.3/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
18
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.4%
+8.6 →
Learned
61%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16-20
All players · Headshots
57.7%149 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.78) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.0 headshots vs line 18.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 59%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.0 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.66 vs line 18 → +0.66 (3.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.57
HS/Map
10.32
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.73
ADR
76.6
KAST
72.3%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8 · KPR 0.713 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)10.8 · KPR 0.781 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.718
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.22%
Final projected kills31.99
× realistic HS% (58.7%)18.66
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18. Model: 55.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~16 HS · 36r24.6%
Normal50.6%
~19 HS · 43r50.6%
Close maps5.8%
~20 HS · 46r60.2%
Overtime16.7%
~23 HS · 52r78.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
+14% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Over) · avg 21.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Over | 59.9% | |
| 17 Over | 56.6% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 52.4% | OFFERED |
| 19 Over | 45.9% | below BE |
| 20 Over | 39.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18→18no change
- Back on board18 → 18Oct 24, 09:08 PM
- Pulled18Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board18 → 18Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled18Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen18Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
54.7%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
22.1
KPR
0.87
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.82
HS%
67.6%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
65.2%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 2 Cache 7-13 | 14 Nuke 16-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 14 Anubis 13-5 | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 12 Cache 13-11 | 11 Dust2 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 5 Cache 13-6 | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 13 Mirage 16-12 | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Mirage 22-20 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 9 Cache 13-5 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 13 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 7 Nuke 13-2 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 11 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 9 Cache 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Cache 13-3 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 5 Cache 13-4 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 12 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 15 Mirage 16-14 | 11 Ancient 13-3 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 9 Mirage 13-1 | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































